17 Signs You Work With ufabet

Материал из X4 Wiki
Перейти к: навигация, поиск

It seems like a dream or a fantasy. Can you really bet on both sides of a sports contest and come out a winner? How about a big winner? The answer is a surprising yes. It's something that is not talked about too much, but it exists. This article is going to explain how you can win at sports betting by betting both sides of an NBA game. The concept is very easy to follow and you will be able to go out and use it in just a minute or two from now. Are you ready? Here we go. ™

Line Movements & the Basics

The concept is based off the fact that the NBA line normally moves up and/or down with each NBA game. For example, a team might open as a 2 point favorite and close as a 2 point favorite, but during the day, the team might have been up to a 5 point favorite. The totals line in the NBA is always full of movement. A game might open at 192 and close at 196. Line movements on the totals line of 3-4 points are a normal occurrence. To perform this sports betting maneuver, you are going to bet each side at different times. Not all games are viable options for this strategy, because not all games have movements. As mentioned before, the totals line moves for most games. There are four main rules to follow:

1. If you bet the favorite, you need to bet the underdog when the line goes up.

2. If you bet the underdog, you need to bet the favorite when the line goes down.

3. If you bet the over, you need to bet the under when the line goes up.

4. If you bet the under, you need to bet the over when the line goes down.

Now that we have the general rules and concepts in place, let's look at an actual NBA totals example.

Betting Example

Our example consists of the Miami Heat, who is a 3 point favorite, playing at home against the N.Y. Knicks. The over/under for the game is at 168 and the line just opened. You will be making $110 wagers-since it's easy, mathematically, to see how things work. You make an initial bet on the OVER 168 for the game for $110. Through monitoring the line off and on during the day, you notice the line has moved to 173. You decide that a 5 point swing is good enough and make a $110 on the UNDER of 173. You now have two tickets in play and here are the possible outcomes.

1. The game can end at 169 or 174. This is a push and you only lose your vig on one ticket.

2. The game can end at/over 174 or at/under 167. This is a push and you only lose your vig on one ticket.

3. The game can end at 168 or 173. You pushed one ticket and won the other. You have won $90. ($100 minus vig)

4. The game can end at 169,170,171 or 172. You win both tickets and receive $190.

In our example, the worst that can happen is you lose $10. The best-case scenario has you winning $190, which is 19 times your risk.

The Catch

So what's the catch? You need to know which way the line is going to move and if it will move at all. Let's say you bet that ufabet OVER 168 and the line did not move. You are now playing the OVER 168. If you like this bet, there's no problem at all. However, if you bet just hoping it would move, you now have a bet you don't care for.

Next time you make a NBA basketball bet, pay attention to the line moves. You just might find a way to capitalize on it without risking much.

Years ago Dr. Z (Dr. William Ziemba) a mathematics expert, showed that profits could be made by comparing a horses odds, and consequently its chances of actually winning, placing, or showing, to the actual place and show payoff.  For instance, if a horse was at even money, using statistics, Dr. Z could predict how likely the horse was to win, place, or show.  If a horse was at 8-5 and he knew it had a probability of showing 80% of the time and the show ticket would pay $3 it was a profitable bet.

Betting a horse that pays $3 to show and winning 8 out of ten bets returns $24 for every $20 invested for a profit of 20%.  His methods are still used today, though because he published them in his book which was a great success.  You can still watch the tote and do the math if you like, but there are easier ways to spot potentially good bets in the place and show pools.

Naturally, if you devote the time to learning the formulas and apply them, you will be rewarded accordingly, but if you just want an easy and fun way to pick up some good bets at the horse track, here is what to looks for.

Good place and show bets usually occur when one horse is thought to be quite a bit better than the rest of the field and another horse is thought to be better than the rest of the field but not anywhere near as good as the top horse.  The horse with the big advantage in speed or class will usually be the big favorite, often going off at less than even money.

The odds may look something like this in a five horse field...

3-5

4-1

9-2

5-1

12-1

In most cases this would not render a good situation for a place or show bet.  The place and show money will usually be evenly distributed among the runners based on their odds.  However, if the board looks like this...

3-5

2-1

5-1

6-1

12-1

There is a possibility that the crowd is so convinced that the second choice at 2-1 will place that they have poured a tone of money into the place pool on this one horse and actually made a place bet on the favorite a value bet.  Look at the difference between the odds of the second choice at 2-1 and its next nearest competitor, the third choice at 5-1.

When I see odds like that I usually look at the totals in the place and show pool.  Let's say the place pool looks like this...

Place Pool Total $1,000

200

450

125

150

75

Obviously, even though the second choice has a lower probability of placing than the top horse, it has more money bet to show on it.  This often makes the favorite, a good place bet and the same situation can be found in the show pool.  It is usually the second choice that gets an abundance of money bet on it but once in a while, one of the other horses, the kind that is often in the money but seldom wins, will take a large share of the pool.

While there is no guarantee that this situation will be profitable over the long haul and to be more accurate it would pay to do the math, for short term bets, this does at least offer some edge to the horse player looking for value in the pools.